Current State of the Arctic Sea Ice - A Layman's Perspective **Update**

Updated NEP 7/25, NWP 7/24

Note: RealClimate has a very informative open thread on Arctic Sea Ice that is very much worth your time. There are some excellent comments and great links.  


Northeast Passage
UPDATE: Replaced the image with an annotated version; added link to a depth chart for the East Siberian Sea.

Finally, a nearly clear view of the last ice blocking the NEP. (Click for larger image.)

Based on the depth chart found here, it seems hugging the coastline is not a viable option for any large vessels with greater than between 1 - 3 fathoms' draft. This means we can consider the open water open only to vessels with very shallow drafts. All others must go through the ice, but given the 20 mile resolution of this image, that seems realistic, particularly with icebreakers on standby, as would be the case. I wish I had access to someone who navigates the Arctic to see if my thinking is realistic or B.S.

Northwest Passage
UPDATE 7/24 (Scroll down for earlier NWP post.)
It was looking more and more like the southern route of the NWP would open before the northern route, but today it's looking more like a horse race. If you click on the image for a higher resolution you can see significant cracking and deterioration of the ice is occurring in both the main channel and the southern route. The quality of the ice in the southern route appears to be lower than in the northern route. The East-West portion of the southern route is about 350 miles further south than the northern route, so this is not surprising. Passages through the Northwest Passage long ago sometimes had to use the southern route to complete the trip, in fact. If memory serves, the first documented passage of the NWP was through the southern route.