Showing posts with label bailout. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bailout. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

 A nice overview of where things stand. Be sure to look through the stories listed and the comments. There's often better stuff there than even in the main post or stories.


Ilargi: For once, I'm afraid, I have to agree with Paul Krugman, himself a highly dysfunctional man in my eyes: the US government is Dangerously Dysfunctional. Only, Krugman, ever eager to be my anti-thesis, -somewhat comfortingly for me- rolls off the rails right away again by claiming that this is a result of party politics, and the blame lies squarely with the party he happens not to like, the GOP. And while I have little sympathy for that particular party, I do know that Krugman's portrayal is false.

Eliot Spitzer and Wiilam K. Black, seemingly honest and (therefore?) marginalized voices, ask to see emails concerning the AIG bailout(s). Therein, they contend, we’ll be able to see what really went on when the world's -then- largest insurer received $180 billion of your money, much of which was transferred at an amazing speed to the likes of Goldman Sachs. Make the emails public and we’ll know, because then "a thousand journalistic flowers can bloom". They actually wrote that.....

Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism reacts, and wants more. She thinks we should know why no research was done into all the parties involved, why they could receive money without being scrutinized before, during and after the bail-out process. Yves provides a well-written overview of Goldman Sachs actions that involved parts of the AIG funds. Still, calling for investigations into the matter, with or without emails, and more than a year after the fact, largely misses the crucial points here. Which takes us back to my buddy Krugman.

The AIG decisions were made in Washington. There was another party on the throne, but what difference did that make? The decision-making problems don’t vanish when another party comes to power. That much, we can all agree by now, has been made exceedingly obvious by the Bush to Obama transfer. The reason behind this is that the real rulers stayed in place while the White House changed occupants. The US simply isn't governed by its elected politicians. Or at least not by their ideas and convictions, if, when and where these differ from those of their donors.

If a politician can be elected only when (s)he has enough money (i.e. millions of dollars, and for a president hundreds of millions) to run a campaign, then the resulting policies will be dictated by those who donate that money. And since one dollar equals one vote, the grandma who ate mac and cheese for a week to donate $10 to Obama has no say, while a financial institution that gave $10 million does.

Both parties partake of the exact same largesse, so claiming that one is to blame and the other is not is nonsense. The system itself is broken. And you can't fix it with a bit more openness here or a few published emails there. You can only fix it by separating politics and business, by taking a big old axe and cruelly cutting clear through the umbilical chords so carefully and profitably attended to on K Street. Anything else is mere make believe. Nobody in Washington seeks the truth behind all this. Everybody seeks a story that makes them look good for their voters.

Arnold Kling describes it like this in The Harvard-Goldman Filter:
As to libertarians, certainly in a world with no deposit insurance or government guarantees I could argue against government interference in the structure of private banks. But banks are not private in this country. They are quasi-public institutions [..].

There is a synergy between big banks and big government. Jefferson and Jackson were right. So breaking up big banks fits in with breaking up big government. Which is why we won't see the Progressive elite breaking up big banks.



The trouble in Denmark on Capitol Hill runs much deeper than a vote or an idea. The country is governed by a few hundred enlightened souls who are all for sale, or they wouldn't be where they are. And if a soul does get lost on the Hill and tries to follow his or her conscience, the rest of them will drown it out.

This is not a new issue, though it has rapidly grown more poignant in the past 3 decades. What is new today is that the dysfunctional system has to deal with a crisis that cannot be dealt with as previous crises were: with more growth.

And without growth, what wealth there is has to be redivided, or society as a whole becomes untenable. And yes, redivided it is, but not in a way that would warrant society's continued viability. On the contrary, those who always had much will have more, while those who had least will now have nothing. And I’ve said it before, it's not a political statement to say that if a society doesn't provide a minimum for its poorest, that society must of necessity fail.

Read all the emails you want, investigate all the crooked deals made in the bail-outs. It won’t matter one iota. Once growth is gone, you need to prevent the rich from lobbying themselves into ever and even more riches. because these will have to come from the mouths of the desolate.

Or you can choose not to, but then your society is over and done with. Now, I don’t really think people will think I’m right. When most read that the noughties were the worst decade for stocks ever, as in since the 1820's, almost 200 years, they’ll think: well, it should go up then, shouldn't it?

Who among them concludes that growth may be gone, even if they know it can’t last forever? It was inevitable that they'd still be expecting -nay, even seeing- growth when the world around them is shrinking.


PS: The Financial Times headline "Bank of Japan says it will not tolerate deflation" inspired a good friend to come up with this quote about King Canute, about a millenium or so old. It would be a valuable lesson for many, not in the least the economists and assorted financial types who overestimate governmental powers and good will of many sorts and stripes.
"Henry of Huntingdon, the 12th-century chronicler, tells how Cnut set his throne by the sea shore and commanded the tide to halt and not wet his feet and robes; but the tide failed to stop.

According to Henry, Cnut leapt backwards and said "Let all men know how empty and worthless is the power of kings, for there is none worthy of the name, but He whom heaven, earth, and sea obey by eternal laws." He then hung his gold crown on a crucifix, and never wore it again."

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Of Crashes, Failures and Bailouts - Round VI

This video speaks for itself. Who got bailed out? Not you and not me. We are the proud owners of all the debt created by federal policies, deregulation, and outright fraud.



Elizabeth Warren would be an excellent choice to replace Tim Geithner, Larry Summers or Ben Bernanke. In case you distrust Warren as an insider, you should also watch the following (it will help you understand why Americans are so leveraged in debt, why a two-income household is required, and why we've nothing left for Wall Street and the government to drain from us, and so why they are now pawning off their debt on our children... and their children... and their children...)

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Of Crashes, Failures and Bailouts - Round IV

You learn something new every day. Bill Moyers had William Black on his Journal recently. (Click title for link.) William Black, in case you don't know (I didn't), was a regulator during the Keating Five Savings and Loan scandal of the 1980's. That is, when it comes to financial fraud and the law surrounding it, he knows his shtuff.

That's not the new thing I learned, though it is a new thing I learned.

Turns out, AIG alone is bigger than the S&L scandal. Unbelievable. Turns out, AIG was used to funnel money - BAILOUT FUNDS - to supposedly "solvent" banks. Which banks? Well, by now you've heard (at least if you are someone who would be reading this blog) AIG passed bailout funds on to such stalwarts as:

Country
AIG-related payments



billions of dollars

US
43.5


France
19.1


Germany
16.7


UK
12.7


Switzerland 5.4


Netherlands 2.3


Canada
1.1


Spain
0.3


Denmark
0.2




101.3













AIG-Related Payments



Country

Bank
Amount Total Country


billions of dollars

Bank of Montreal 1.1 1.1 Canada
Danske
0.2 0.2 Denmark
Société Générale 11.9
France
BNP Paribas 4.9
France
Calyon
2.3
France



19.1 France
Deutsche Bank 11.8
Germany
Dresdner Kleinwort 2.2
Germany
Deutsche Zentral-Genossenschaftsbank 1
Germany
DZ Bank
0.7
Germany
KFW
0.5
Germany
Dresdner Bank AG 0.4
Germany
Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg 0.1
Germany



16.7 Germany
ING
1.5
Netherlands
Rabobank
0.8
Netherlands



2.3 Netherlands
Banco Santander 0.3 0.3 Spain
UBS
5
Switzerland
Credit Suisse 0.4
Switzerland



5.4 Switzerland
Barclays
8.5
UK
HSBC Bank USA 3.5
UK
Royal Bank of Scotland 0.7
UK



12.7 UK
Goldman Sachs 12.9
US
States and Cities 12
US
Merrill Lynch 6.8
US
Bank of America 5.2
US
Citigroup
2.3
US
Wachovia
1.5
US
Morgan Stanley 1.2
US
AIG International Inc. 0.6
US
JPMorgan
0.4
US
Citadel
0.2
US
Paloma Securities 0.2
US
Reconstruction Finance Corp 0.2
US



43.5 US

Aside: You may recall I earlier posted about the bailout money not going to just American banks. Note that over 50% of the money AIG passed out - that you and I are bailed AIG out with - went to foreign entities. (Many thanks to Karl Denninger on that point.)

Black on AIG payments:
...remember, they kept secrets from everyone.

BILL MOYERS: A.I.G. did?

WILLIAM K. BLACK: ...no, Treasury and both administrations. The Bush administration and now the Obama administration kept secret from us what was being done with AIG. AIG was being used secretly to bail out favored banks like UBS and like Goldman Sachs. Secretary Paulson's firm, that he had come from being CEO. It got the largest amount of money. $12.9 billion. And they didn't want us to know that. And it was only Congressional pressure, and not Congressional pressure, by the way, on Geithner, but Congressional pressure on AIG. Where Congress said, "We will not give you a single penny more unless we know who received the money."
Ah! Scandalous! The use of words like "secretly" is nice to see. I love people who tell it like it is because, if you don't, who the hell knows whether they can trust you? And remember, this guy Black has been there and done that.

But that's not the thing I learned. You and I already knew this.

Black talks about FRAUD. Yeah, baby! Now we're gettin' somewhere! You'd swear he shaves with Occam's Razor, he lays it out so simply.
WILLIAM K. BLACK: Fraud is deceit. And the essence of fraud is, "I create trust in you, and then I betray that trust, and get you to give me something of value." And as a result, there's no more effective acid against trust than fraud, especially fraud by top elites, and that's what we have.
Up to now everyone is just calling it bad luck, unforeseeable, a business cycle, a lack of trust, a lack of liquidity. Black calls it fraud.

BILL MOYERS: So you're suggesting, saying that CEOs of some of these banks and mortgage firms in order to increase their own personal income, deliberately set out to make bad loans?

WILLIAM K. BLACK: Yes.

BILL MOYERS: How do they get away with it?...

WILLIAM K. BLACK: All of those checks and balances report to the CEO, so if the CEO goes bad, all of the checks and balances are easily overcome... And the bonus programs are exactly how you do that.

BILL MOYERS: If I wanted to go looking for the parties to this, with a good bird dog, where would you send me?

WILLIAM K. BLACK: Well, that's exactly what hasn't happened. We haven't looked, all right? The Bush Administration essentially got rid of regulation, so if nobody was looking... Where would you look? You'd look at the specialty lenders... liars' loans...

...You tell us what your assets are, and we agree to believe you. We won't check on any of those things...

...We know that they said that to borrowers.

BILL MOYERS: Is it possible that these complex instruments were deliberately created so swindlers could exploit them?

WILLIAM K. BLACK: Oh, absolutely. This stuff, the exotic stuff that you're talking about was created out of things like liars' loans, that were known to be extraordinarily bad. And now it was getting triple-A ratings. Now a triple-A rating is supposed to mean there is zero credit risk. So you take something that not only has significant, it has crushing risk. That's why it's toxic. And you create this fiction that it has zero risk. That itself, of course, is a fraudulent exercise. And again, there was nobody looking, during the Bush years...

BILL MOYERS: So if your assumption is correct, your evidence is sound, the bank, the lending company, created a fraud. And the ratings agency that is supposed to test the value of these assets knowingly entered into the fraud...

WILLIAM K. BLACK: Right, and the investment banker that — we call it pooling — puts together these bad mortgages, these liars' loans, and creates the toxic waste of these derivatives. All of them do that...

Wow.

But that's not the thing I learned, either. Hey, we knew all this, even before anyone said it out loud, right?
WILLIAM K. BLACK: The FBI publicly warned, in September 2004 that there was an epidemic of mortgage fraud, that if it was allowed to continue it would produce a crisis at least as large as the Savings and Loan debacle. And that they were going to make sure that they didn't let that happen.
Ah, but we knew that, too. But did you know after 9/11 Bush pulled 500 white collar crime specialists into the War on Terror? OK. Fine. But he never replaced them.

Oops.

Well, not really oops, more like, "Duh!" The Bush admin did everything in their power to enrich Big Business. Still, I didn't know that.

But that's not the new thing I learned, either.

Did you know Geithner is breaking the law? No, a real, specific law.
WILLIAM K. BLACK: ...they violate the rule of law. This is being done just like Secretary Paulson did it. In violation of the law. We adopted a law after the Savings and Loan crisis, called the Prompt Corrective Action Law. And it requires them to close these institutions. And they're refusing to obey the law.
I, you, we, we all knew there was conflict of interest. We all assumed laws were being broken. We all just... well... just. That's what we did. But these people are breaking the law with impunity while we... just. Now, we kind of expect a little hanky-panky in such a complex situation, pretty much by default. This goes beyond that.

And THIS is the thing I didn't know: There's a law.

This law forces regulators to put these banks into receivership. Receivership would reveal all the toxic assets. That would set the real value of the banks. (Pennies.) And THAT would alter finance forever. Or, at least until we forget the lessons of this meltdown like we did the lessons of the previous one.

But it would also allow recovery. With all assets known, there can be trust that what you buy is what you get. Assets could be sold. Healthy companies with honest management could do something with them. The debt burden would lie on the fools who did this, not on you and I. And our grandchildren.

Oh, and Black says this isn't something Paulson and Geithner could do, it's something they were/are mandated to do by the Prompt Corrective Action Law.

WILLIAM K. BLACK: Well, you do a receivership. No one -- Ronald Reagan did receiverships. Nobody called it nationalization.

BILL MOYERS: And that's a law?

WILLIAM K. BLACK: That's the law.

BILL MOYERS: So, Paulson could have done this? Geithner could do this?

WILLIAM K. BLACK: Not could. Was mandated--

BILL MOYERS: By the law.

WILLIAM K. BLACK: By the law.

BILL MOYERS: This law, you're talking about.

WILLIAM K. BLACK: Yes.

BILL MOYERS: What the reason they give for not doing it?

WILLIAM K. BLACK: They ignore it. And nobody calls them on it.

This is lawbreaking that is slowing economic recovery. It is siphoning the future for the present, but only for a very lucky, manipulative, rich, lying, felonious few. (Have you taken a gander at wealth inequality in the US lately?) Our taxes will be paying for this for generations. Literally. The US is in the process of impoverishing it's citizens for a generation or more.

Will you act?

The interview has more. Watch it or read the transcript. If you dare.

Cheers

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Disaster Capitalism for Dummies

We are no longer waiting for The Perfect Storm to come, it is here. The outer bands are sweeping the beaches, the storm surge is lapping at the sea walls and breaches are occurring. But it's not just the economy, stupid. Keep in mind energy prices were the pin that popped the housing bubble. Keep in mind energy prices and environmental disasters drove the costs of food and fertilizer higher. This is a Perfect Storm of converging storms, large and small.

We have energy prices (at current "low" prices, they are still 3 - 4x prices in 2003) driving food, fertilizer, pesticide prices, bio-fuels creating havoc with food production, impacting funding for alternative energies, and slowing the economy.

We have weather disasters driven by Climate Change causing destruction we cannot seem to recover from (Katrina, Galveston) and reducing harvests in a number of areas, notably the US, Australia and Bangladesh.

We have the economic disaster (We *might* be in a recession? Freaking liars and/or idiots.) literally resulting in the nationalization of economies all over the globe. We have sold our nations to the bankers. All of this compounded by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which had already been used as excuse to strip away our rights and freedoms, draining the coffers and dragging on the economy. Our ability to adapt to Climate Change, rebuilding as a sustainable society is deeply impacted. Global Warming is likely unstoppable simply because we will likely not be able to afford the transition.

We are in deep poop, people. The longer this goes without the We the Sheeple standing up and telling our leaders what to do, rather than being led to our own slaughter, the more likely there will be nothing but the ultra wealthy and powerful buying their custom built oases, fully staffed by Blackwater, and the rest of us baking in the sun scratching about for a few weeds to nibble on.

With regard to the Economic Storm, I don't think it can be said any better than this:

Wall Street's 'Disaster Capitalism for Dummies'

14 reasons Main Street loses big while Wall Street sabotages democracy

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Yes, we're dummies. You. Me. All 300 million of us. Clueless. We should be ashamed. We're obsessed about the slogans and rituals of "democracy," distracted by the campaign, polls, debates, rhetoric, half-truths and outright lies. McCain? Obama? Sorry to pop your bubble folks, but it no longer matters who's president.

Why? The real "game changer" already happened. Democracy has been replaced by Wall Street's new "disaster capitalism." That's the big game-changer historians will remember about 2008, masterminded by Wall Street's ultimate "Trojan Horse," Hank Paulson. Imagine: Greed, arrogance and incompetence create a massive bubble, cost trillions, and still Wall Street comes out smelling like roses, richer and more powerful!

Yes, we're idiots: While distracted by the "illusion of democracy" in the endless campaign, Congress surrendered the powers we entrusted to it with very little fight. Congress simply handed over voting power and the keys to trillions in the Treasury to Wall Street's new "Disaster Capitalists" who now control "democracy."

Why did this happen? We're in denial, clueless wimps, that's why. We let it happen. In one generation America has been transformed from a democracy into a strange new form of government, "Disaster Capitalism."

Here's how it happened:
  • Three decades of influence peddling in Washington has built an army of 42,000 special-interest lobbyists representing corporations and the wealthy. Today these lobbyists manipulate America's 537 elected officials with massive campaign contributions that fund candidates who vote their agenda.
  • This historic buildup accelerated under Reaganomics and went into hyperspeed under Bushonomics, both totally committed to a new disaster capitalism run privately by Wall Street and Corporate America. No-bid contracts in wars and hurricanes. A housing-credit bubble -- while secretly planning for a meltdown.
  • Finally, the coup de grace: Along came the housing-credit crisis, as planned. Press and public saw a negative, a crisis. Disaster capitalists saw a huge opportunity. Yes, opportunity for big bucks and control of America. Millions of homeowners and marginal banks suffered huge losses. Taxpayers stuck with trillions in debt. But giant banks emerge intact, stronger, with virtual control over government and the power to use taxpayers' funds. They're laughing at us idiots!
Amazing isn't it, Wall Street's Disaster Capitalists screwed up, likely planned or let happen this meltdown and recession. Yet America's clueless taxpayers just reward them by giving the screw-ups massive bailouts, control over more than $2 trillion of tax money, and the power to clean up the mess they made. Oh yes, we are dummies!

This end game was planned for years in secret war rooms on Wall Street, in Corporate America, in Washington and the Forbes 400. Democracy is too cumbersome. It had to be marginalized for Disaster Capitalism to take over. Reagan, Bush and Paulson were Wall Street's "Trojan Horses."
Naomi Klein summarizes the game in "Shock Doctrine: the Rise of Disaster Capitalism." This "new economy" generates enormous profits feeding off other peoples' misery: Wars, terror attacks, natural catastrophes, poverty, trade sanctions, subprime housing meltdowns and all kinds of economic, financial and political disasters. Natural (Katrina) or manmade (Iraq), either way "disaster capitalism" creates fortunes.

So you, me and the other 300 million better get out of denial. America is no longer a democracy. Voting is irrelevant. Best case scenario: We're a plutocracy, a government ruled by the wealthy, the richest 1%, the Forbes 400, the influential wealthy elite, while the other 99% are their "servants." Meanwhile, the inflation-adjusted income of wage-earners has declined for three decades.

Worst case scenario: America's no democracy and as a result of the meltdown and the surrender of our power to Wall Street's new Disaster Capitalism we are morphing into what one WWII dictator called "corporatism," a "merger of state and corporate power," kind of like what's going on now with Goldman Sachs' ex-boss as de facto president.
Wolves in sheep's clothing

Yes, a strong charge. But like a lot of our readers, I don't like what's happening to America. I'm a patriot. I volunteered for the Marines. Served four years. Volunteered for Korea. I don't like how our freedoms, rights and value system are being subverted in the name of greed, arrogance, self-righteous intolerance and other false gods.

We know for the last eight years disaster capitalists ignored obvious warnings of a coming meltdown. They apparently planned it. They road the bull, got very rich. Now they have the ultimate disaster capitalist weapons, trillions in tax money, virtual control of government.

That's why I fear we're on the edge of a dangerous line between Wall Street's version of disaster capitalism and a toxic "merger of state and corporate power." The wolf is in sheep's clothing. Wall Street pretends we're a democracy. Yet America more closely resembles the kind of "corporatism" that Laurence W. Britt wrote about five years ago in Free Inquiry magazine.

We adapted his historical analysis of 14 key traits for today's discussion. Notice how they have a huge impact your investments and retirement:

1. Wall Street rich get first priority
Think "bailout." Wall Street's greedy con game spins out of control globally. Millions of homeowners misled, lose. Who gets hundreds of billions first? Wall Street's con men.
2. National security obsession
Think of the expansion of executive powers in the name of national security: Preemptive wars, wiretapping private citizens, Gitmo, torture; driven by a dark wealthy neocon elite.
3. Superpower with massive military
Think of our $3 trillion Iraq/Afghan War. Disaster capitalists love the thrill of military power. We outspend all nations, over half the federal budget to strut before the world.
4. Extreme nationalism
Signs are everywhere: Flags, lapel pins, "support the troops" slogans, all to get huge military budgets passed. Challenge them and you're un-American and unpatriotic.
5. Rally the masses by scapegoating enemies
Think "axis of evil," mushroom clouds, "Islamofascists," more terrorist attacks on the homeland. Propaganda creates "enemies" in the public's mind and distracts from real issues.
6. Corruption and cronyism
Think earmarks, no-bid defense contracts, paid mercenaries outnumbering military in Iraq, superlobbyist Jack Abramoff, biofuels, bridge to nowhere, millions donated to campaigns.
7. Obsession with crime
Think of prison-building as just another investment opportunity, rather than focusing on reforming our criminal justice system. Stoke irrational fear of criminals and extremists.
8. Labor and low wages
Think corporate earnings versus the wages paid to workers. No "trickling down," leaves more for tricklers: Rich insiders, stockholders. Wages dropping as CEO salaries skyrocket.
9. Contempt for human rights
Think of abuses of habeas corpus, loss of right to trial, bogus charges, plus "demonizing" the victims, all in the name of national defense and homeland security.
10. Mass media manipulation
Think of leaking false information, Joseph Wilson, Valerie Plame, Scooter Libby, Colin Powell's United Nation's testimony, Condoleezza Rice's mushroom clouds, WMDs, all to suppress the truth.
11. Obsession with sexism
Think of paternalism, antigays, antiabortion, subordinate women -- then codify the system as the law of the land reinforcing a male-dominated society, punish violators.
12. Disdain for intellectuals
Think of conservative intellectuals Francis Fukuyama and Bill Buckley. Contrast them to Sarah Palin and Joe Sixpack conservatism, Bush's funding cuts for arts and science education.
13. Religion in government
Think of all the faith-based programs versus antiscience in drug approvals, creationism vs. evolution, Ten Commandments enshrined in public buildings, public money to churches.
14. Fraudulent elections
Think of police and prosecutorial intimidation and threats to voters, challenging minority voters, ballots disappearing, party election officials committing outright fraud.

Yes, officially America is still a democracy. We have enough signs and rituals to support that illusion. But the truth is America has become a plutocracy run by and for the wealthy. And since Wall Street's Disaster Capitalism coup de grace, we are rapidly morphing into a dangerous new government.

For more, read Britt's original article, then add comments here: Was the meltdown planned by Wall Street's Disaster Capitalists?

"America has become a plutocracy run by and for the wealthy."

Indeed.

And you are not invited to partake.

More info on "Shock Doctrine" from Naomi Klein:

The Shock Doctrine, the book.


The Shock Doctrine, Short Video


The Shock Doctrine, Long Video

Friday, October 3, 2008

Of Crashes, Failures and Bailouts - Round III

Should the Senate pass its revised version of the $700 billion bailout bill?

Yes - No
35% - 65%


FIGHT BACK.
CALL YOUR REPRESENTATIVES.
REJECT THIS ATTEMPT TO USURP YOUR POWER AND MONEY.

Representative Sherman's remarks on the House floor at 8:07 PM EST, Thursday, Oct. 2nd:

The only way they can pass this bill is by creating and maintaining a panic atmosphere. That atmosphere is not justified. Many of us were told in private conversations that if we voted against this bill on Monday... the markets would fall 2 or 3,000 points the first day, another couple thousand the second day, and a few members were even told that there would be Martial Law in America if we voted no.
This is what is driving the debate, the vote: Fear. It is what we have seen for the last 7+ years. Are you not tired of the lies?

UPDATE: Rep. Sherman also spoke again at 8:23 AM Friday morning. He points out again the pork and the fact the "oversight" is B.S.: the Congress has no power to enforce. He says again: let's stay here a week and develop a GOOD bill.

Let's review:

Claim by Paulson, Bernanke, Bush, McCain, et a.: The economy is fundamentally strong. Paulson: It's contained.

Reality: Obviously false.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Claim: Paulson, Bernanke, Bush, et al.: We must act now. We don't have weeks. There will be financial disaster and Martial Law.

Reality: Obviously false.
  1. It's been more than a week.
  2. Secret conference call assures Wall Street first funds won't be used for a couple weeks while they decide who lives and who dies. Also, provisions have no teeth; all 700 billion will be available immediately.
Here's some more on that secret conference call. (Hat tip to Leanan at The Oil Drum.):

Financial Eugenics: The Paulson Plan for Survivor Bias

As I write this... I suspect that Congress will force the passage of the bill in some form because the media and political narrative on the necessity of the measure is unremitting and so horribly biased.

No alternatives will be considered.

No constraints on the unilateral executive authority of Hank Paulson will be considered.

No assurances that funds will be used to unlock credit markets or promote lending to the real economy (as opposed to the financial robber barons) will be considered.

...Having listened to all 42 minutes of the late night Treasury briefing of investment banks on Sunday, there is no doubt in my mind that this legislation represents the sort of federal largesse for Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citibank and JPMorgan Chase that the Iraq war provided for Halliburton and Blackwater.

The most cynical moment in the call is when the Treasury official confirms, ”our preference would be to help the healthy banks become even healthier” rather than helping troubled banks or illiquid banks.

America is now a centrally planned economy where the Treasury will determine which firms survive and prosper...

Clearly what is going on here has nothing to do with kick starting the credit markets or stabilising the equity markets or restoring depositor confidence in banks. (Treasury official: “No provision in the legislation that mandates re-lending.”) What is going on here is a blatant attempt to provide government funds to a select cadre of firms (not all banks) which are chosen to be the survivors feasting off the carcasses of their less fortunate and less well-connected brethren as the downturn intensifies in the years to come.

The crash in equities will still happen. The debt deflation of the economy leading to mass commercial and consumer credit defaults will still happen. The collapse of many national, regional and local financial institutions will still happen. The bankruptcy of many municipalities and shortfalls in state budgets will still happen.

This bill is about engineering survivor bias to friends of the Bush administration... and unconditional authority of the Secretary of the Treasury.

...The SEC will support the plan and survivor bias by relaxing FASB 157 on mark to market accounting...

The Federal Reserve will support the plan by relaxing the definition of “control stake” in US banks and bank holding companies to allow secretive cabals to hold through private equity and offshore hedge funds... Many foreign creditors are irate at the losses... and this plan provides a secret way to buy them off and keep them lending and investing...

I would like to believe Americans expressed the courage to change over last weekend when they 25 to 1 rejected an unconstrained and unconditional bailout of Wall Street in favour of cold turkey deleveraging of the economy. I wish I could believe that it mattered in the political calculus, but the result of the House vote on the bill will tell us that.

Fight the survivor bias. It’s not your survival they’re engineering.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Claim: $700 billion will save us.

Reality: The Fed, a.k.a. Helicopter Ben, put over 60o billion in play and it did... nothing.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Claim: This will save Main Street.

Reality: Obviously false. There are mortgage resets coming for the next two or three years. That means this problem will just grind on and on... and this bill does NOTHING about that.

In fact, foreign investors get relief. I stated earlier this is inappropriate. It is likely unconstitutional. And why threaten veto if the provision is taken out? How can it possibly be of urgent interest to Americans? Sure, the world economy is important,but the ENTIRE WORLD is going to implode if this isn't passed this week? I've got a bridge to sell ya...



And who's buying banks and insurance companies? B of A, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan... etc.... all buying, not selling. Buying assets and leaving liabilities... to YOU:


AIG to sell as many assets as needed to pay bailout

As Big Banks Converge...
Citigroup Inc.'s decision this week to gobble up most of ailing Wachovia Corp. is the latest in a string of blockbuster acquisitions that have transformed the banking landscape. A huge chunk of consumer deposits are now consolidated in three banking behemoths -- Citigroup, Bank of America Corp. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. -- not known for wooing consumers with high interest rates and low fees.

Wells Fargo to acquire Wachovia for $15.1 billion in all-stock deal, ends Citigroup talks


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Claim: Not acting will cause a recession.

Reality: We have been in recession since the last quarter 2007 according to some, and virtually never got past the recession of 2001 according to others. The people saying we are not in a recession are in the government or neo-con pundits.

Chart of Growth in U.S.Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Inflation?
Chart of U.S. Consumer Inflation (CPI)

Unemployment?
Chart of U.S. Unemployment

And guess when the money supply started drying up. Last week? No.... Check out M3, which Bush stopped reporting in 2006 because it was "too expensive" to report and not important:

Chart of U.S. Money Supply Growth


FIGHT BACK.
CALL YOUR REPRESENTATIVES.
REJECT THIS ATTEMPT TO USURP YOUR POWER AND MONEY.

Ex-Treasury secretary O'Neill says Bailout Plan 'crazy,' 'lunacy'
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said the $700 billion bank-rescue proposal under negotiation in Washington is "crazy," with potentially "awful" consequences for the world's largest economy.

"Doesn't this seem like lunacy to you?" said O'Neill, who was President George W. Bush's first Treasury chief, from 2001 to 2002, in a telephone interview Wednesday. "The consequences of it are unbelievably bad in terms of public intrusion into the private sector."

O'Neill's objections mirror those of Republicans in the House of Representatives who rejected the plan in a Sept. 29 vote. The former Treasury chief said he lobbied for an alternative solution that would offer guarantees for troubled assets, stopping short of purchasing the debt.

"Is anybody thinking there?" asked O'Neill, who also served as deputy budget director in the Ford administration. "It's too late, it's not going to make any difference and it's aggravating as hell when there's a better idea and you can't even get it in play," he said.

O'Neill, 72, was fired after an almost two-year tenure marked by strains with White House officials and comments that roiled markets.
Peter Schiff and Bob O'Brien on Glenn Beck: Causes and What the Future Holds

Great comments at:
3:10: GDP top drop 10% ~ 15% over next 12 ~ 15 months (Beck)
7:40: Govt' made it easy to borrow instead of work hard (Schiff)
8:09: - Gov't atfault - For years gov't kept things artificially supported... money supply... stopped working a few months ago... now engineering price of money...gov't actions pernicious, untested (O'Brien)


This is from an e-mail I got from Democrats.com:

The Senate's 74-25 vote for Paulson's Plunder came as no surprise, since the Senate is run by and for millionaires. So now it's back to the House of Representatives, where we shocked those millionaires on Monday by defeating their bailout bill by 228-205.

A terrified army of corporate lobbyists is working around the clock to switch 13 votes, but only 7 have switched so far - Jim Ramstad (R-MN), John Shadegg (R-AZ), Zach Wamp (R-TN), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), Shelley Berkley (D-NV), Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO) and John Lewis (D- GA). Other possible switches include Pat Tiberi (R-OH), Pete Hoekstra (R-MI), John Yarmouth (D-KY), Brian Bilbray (R-CA), Steve Rothman (D-NJ), Lee Terry (R-NE), Jim Gerlach (R-PA), Tim Murphy (R-PA), Jason Altmire (D-PA), and Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ). But others may switch from Yes to No, including Ed Markey (D-MA), Charlie Melancon (D-LA), and Spencer Bachus (R-AL).

Bush's first Treasury Secretary, Paul O'Neill, called Paulson's plan "crazy" and "lunacy" with potentially "awful" consequences for the world's largest economy. Many of the best economists agree with O'Neill. Paulson's strongest supporters - including panicked CNBC hosts - now admit it will not raise stock prices or boost the economy as it falls into recession. Then why on earth should we give $700 $850 billion of our tax dollars to Wall Street??? Joe Lieberman gave away the real game when he told FOX " it will be good for John McCain."

With so much at stake, Congress should stay in session for another week (or two) to pass a much better (and cheaper!) plan proposed by Pete DeFazio (D-OR). But Congress desperately wants to go home so Friday may be our last chance to stop this $850 billion disaster .

(1) Call your Representative today!
First check how your Representative voted on Monday (and note switches above):
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2008/roll674.xml
If (s)he voted NO, say "Thank you for helping stop the Bailout on Monday. Don't betray us now by voting YES on Friday, or I will vote NO against you on Election Day."
If (s)he voted YES, say "I'm outraged that you supported the Bailout on Monday, and I will remember on Election Day. If you want my vote on Election Day, you must vote NO on Friday."

(2) Join or organize a street protest against the bailout:
http://bailoutmainstreet.com/

FIGHT BACK.
CALL YOUR REPRESENTATIVES.
REJECT THIS ATTEMPT TO USURP YOUR POWER AND MONEY.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Bailout Alternatives

Are your reps in Congress listening to you? Scroll down the front page of CNNMoney.com to vote. (Thanks to Geckolizard at The Oil Drum.)

Should the Senate pass its revised version of the $700 billion bailout bill?



If you're going to complain about what's wrong, you should be willing to talk about what's right. So, here are the plans that might help.

Rubini's plan on CNBC Look for the video called "HARDTalk US Bailout Special."

Congressman Defazio's plan: No Bailouts Act

Karl Denninger's Genensis Plan:
The solution to the trust issues in our financial system is elegant and it will work.
1. Force all off-balance sheet "assets" back onto the balance sheet, and force the valuation models and identification of individual assets out of Level 3 and into 10Qs and 10Ks. Enact this requirement beginning with the 3Q 2008 reporting period which begins next month.

Total taxpayer cost: $0.00

2. Force all OTC derivatives onto a regulated exchange similar to that used by listed options in the equity markets. This permanently defuses the derivatives time bomb. Give market participants 90 days to get this done; any that are not listed in 90 days are declared void; let the participants sue each other if they can't prove capital adequacy.

Total taxpayer cost: $0.00

3. Force leverage by all institutions to no more than 12:1. The SEC intentionally dropped broker/dealer leverage limits in 2004; prior to that date 12:1 was the limit. Every firm that has failed had double or more the leverage of that former 12:1 limit. Enact this with a six month time limit and require 1/6th of the excess taken down monthly.

Total taxpayer cost: $0.00
And more...

If you like one of these, put it in the ear of your Rep/Senator.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Of Crashes, Failures and Bailouts - Round II

UPDATE: Tell your Reps and Senators to vote for this instead: The Genensis Plan. Primary elements:
The solution to the trust issues in our financial system is elegant and it will work.
1. Force all off-balance sheet "assets" back onto the balance sheet, and force the valuation models and identification of individual assets out of Level 3 and into 10Qs and 10Ks. Enact this requirement beginning with the 3Q 2008 reporting period which begins next month.

Total taxpayer cost: $0.00

2. Force all OTC derivatives onto a regulated exchange similar to that used by listed options in the equity markets. This permanently defuses the derivatives time bomb. Give market participants 90 days to get this done; any that are not listed in 90 days are declared void; let the participants sue each other if they can't prove capital adequacy.

Total taxpayer cost: $0.00

3. Force leverage by all institutions to no more than 12:1. The SEC intentionally dropped broker/dealer leverage limits in 2004; prior to that date 12:1 was the limit. Every firm that has failed had double or more the leverage of that former 12:1 limit. Enact this with a six month time limit and require 1/6th of the excess taken down monthly.

Total taxpayer cost: $0.00
And more... read it.

**UPDATE** **UPDATE** **UPDATE**


Denninger on Bailing out Foreign Companies: Real reason for bailout?

(Another website on the same issue.)

I doubt it is THE real reason, but many nations hold US treasuries and they may be threatening to sell them, which would destroy the dollar overnight. It's a real risk, enunciated by the Chinese a few months ago: The so-called Nuclear Option. It is VERY interesting that Paulson says any bill without bailouts for foreigners will be vetoed.

Like Denninger, I ask: Wasn't this supposed to be about helping Americans? What the hell business do we have socializing foreign companies??? I can't even begin to imagine how much debt that means for US taxpayers.

I think it is very instructive that such a pernicious item in the bill is not being covered by the mainstream media.

VOTE NO.

- You're being lied to! -

UPDATE: Excellent comments from Chomsky, via The Oil Drum:

...This wonderful anti-market system designed by self-proclaimed market enthusiasts is now being implemented in the United States, to deal with the very ominous crisis of financial markets. In general, markets have well-known inefficiencies. One is that transactions do not take into account the effect on others who are not party to the transaction. These so-alled "externalities" can be huge. That is particularly so in the case of financial institutions. Their task is to take risks, and if well-managed, to ensure that potential losses to themselves will be covered. To themselves. Under capitalist rules, it is not their business to consider the cost to others if their practices lead to financial crisis, as they regularly do. In economists' terms, risk is underpriced, because systemic risk is not priced into decisions. That leads to repeated crisis, naturally. At that point, we turn to the IMF solution. The costs are transferred to the public, which had nothing to do with the risky choices but is now compelled to pay the costs - in the US, perhaps mounting to about $1 trillion right now. And of course the public has no voice in determining these outcomes, any more than poor peasants have a voice in being subjected to cruel structural adjustment programs.

A basic principle of modern state capitalism is that cost and risk are socialized, while profit is privatized. That principle extends far beyond financial institutions...

UPDATE: New video from Karl Denninger: $700 billion Bailout Watch 9/30.

UPDATE: Senate attaching tax cuts to putlipstick on the pig. don't mind the tax cuts, but they're meaningless in terms of the bailout. This is bribery, pure and simple.

UPDATE: Did you fax or sign/send a petition? Do some checking here. Some good commentary/info, too: http://supportedthebailout.org/

It's Tuesday morning (now night/Wednesday morning) where most of you are, and Thursday - Ooops! Wednesday! They REALLY don't want you to have time to study this! - will bring another attempt to usurp the power of the People of the United States of America and force them to pay for the bills of the nation's richest people. Of course, with most of the wealthy paying literally no taxes, we already are. But this is ridiculous!

There are a few things you need to know:
This bailout was preplanned according to the official White House Spokesman, Tony Fratto:
Fratto insisted that the plan was not slapped together and had been drawn up as a contingency over previous months and weeks by administration officials. He acknowledged lawmakers were getting only days to peruse it, but he said this should be enough.
If this possibility was discussed for "weeks and months," why are lawmakers just hearing about it? It is quite normal for there to be behind-closed-door meetings between the Executive Branch and the Legislative. Why present this as an eleventh hour, not-time-for-due-process emergency? The why in a moment. More of the how.

First, we were told - a week ago - if this package wasn't passed immediately, the economy would crash. Where is the crash? Sure, we had a stock market drop of historic proportions, but it wasn't a crash and one third of the losses on Monday happened before the "No" vote. But let's not get distracted: Where is the derailed economy?

Second, not only have we had no crash, not only did they put this package together over "weeks and months", but we find out the Treasury had a secret conference call with Big Money in which they stated... wait for it... the money isn't needed for weeks. To wit:
Greenwald has explosive news:
UPDATE III: Matt Stoller has some important revelations and observations about today's vote -- here. The "private" conference call which Treasury Department officials held with Wall St. analysts (and which bloggers infiltrated) referenced by Stoller is revealed in detail here.
Say what? A private call between Treasury and Wall St.? Um... are THEY voting on the King Henry Paulson Bailout, Socialism and Welfare for Bankers and Financiers Act? No. Hmmm... so just what was said, then? Here's a bit:
1. The tranching is a mere formality...

2. However, they do not plan any action immediately, will wait a couple of weeks... They want to focus their efforts on stronger companies but also made noise about protecting the financial system...

5. The exec comp provisions sound like a joke, They DO NOT affect existing contracts, they affect only contracts entered into during the two years of the authority of this program and then affect only golden parachutes...
But what I really want to know is, why is this call happening at all? The people who created this mess have no business having anything to do with cleaning it up. (This leads to a serious problem with Paulson, Bernanke and Bush, but more on that further down.)

Third, here's what Karl Denninger, one of those predicting this crash for a long time, observed about Monday:

Bernanke ProvedPauslon Plan Bankrupt

Thank God we got a "NO" vote today folks.

No, not because the market tanked.

And no, I was not short up to my eyeballs.

I scalp traded the morning but was out when the blowup came, as I didn't expect it - I really did think the bill would pass, my and many other's efforts to stop it notwithstanding.

No, the real news is found here:

"Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will pump an additional $630 billion into the global financial system, flooding banks with cash to alleviate the worst banking crisis since the Great Depression.

The Fed increased its existing currency swaps with foreign central banks by $330 billion to $620 billion to make more dollars available worldwide. The Term Auction Facility, the Fed's emergency loan program, will expand by $300 billion to $450 billion. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are among the participating authorities.

The Fed's expansion of liquidity, the biggest since credit markets seized up last year, came hours before the U.S. House of Representatives rejected a $700 billion bailout for the financial industry. The crisis is reverberating through the global economy, causing stocks to plunge and forcing European governments to rescue four banks over the past two days alone."

Now let's think about this folks.

The Fed threw $630 billion into the market before the vote, and yet the S&P 500 was down 40 handles anyway, and in fact tanked after the vote.

Note carefully - Paulson's plan was $700 billion, and Bernanke spent $630 billion - almost the entire amount proposed - but failed to fix the problem.

Got it?

Good.

Now do you see what I've been saying?

People, you are being lied to. There is no emergency. They sky is not falling. (Well, it is,but not the way they say it is.) So, why they rush? Does this remind you of anything? Say, the Patriot Act? That sure turned out well: Don't read it, just vote! What was it Fratto said up there? They don't need much timeto think about it?

This legislation will have profound effects on this nation and the world. It is a prime determiner of how deep and how long this recession/depression/collapse will be. And at the end of the day, it's robbing you to pay for Wall Street's bankruptcies. This is socialism on a massive scale. This is nothing more than a flow of money and capital into the hands of the richest, most powerful people in the country. And, as Fratto said, it's no accident. They knew this was coming the entire time they kept saying the economy was "sound" and "fundamentally strong."

- You're being lied to! -

All of this is so complex nobody, and I mean literally nobody, can say how much rotten debt is out there or who has it. Nobody can figure out how to let the market - the God of all on Wall Street, BuCheney and Republicans - solve its own problems, but it's something that can be reviewed and voted on in a day?

- You're being lied to! -

Martial Law, And You're Not Invited
Did you know Pelosi could invoke Martial Law and institute new rules in the House? She did. Normal processes were subverted, meeting not held, Congresspersons not consulted. This bill was made available for a mere 24 hours. That's enough time for our Representatives to read through it, consult their experts, discuss it with their constituents, right? And it's enough time for you, a layperson, to figure it all out and advise your Congressperson how to vote, right?

Wrong. This isn't democracy, especially when these extraordinary actions, as we've already seen above, are based on a false emergency. Yet another lie from this Administration and its henchmen.

- You're being lied to! -

Background Check
Who caused this problem? There were many players, but there a couple of events/actions/choices without which this could not have happened. In reality, it all started with the beginning of fractional banking long, long ago and the duplicitous creation of the Fed in 1913 under cover of night on Christmas Eve. You can learn more about those events here, but those are not our topic just now. We're concerned with more recent events.

First among these was the elimination of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999.

Now then, let's first examine the nuts and bolts of this law. What this law did was break the figurative wall between banks, brokers, insurance companies and other financial services companies. The Glass Steagall Act, among many things, separated all sorts of financial services and placed careful limits on what sorts of financial services anyone company can perform.

The Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 established the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) in the United States and included banking reforms, some of which were designed to control speculation.[citation needed] Some provisions such as Regulation Q that allowed the Federal Reserve to regulate interest rates in savings accounts were repealed by the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980. Provisions that prohibit a bank holding company from owning other financial companies were repealed on November 12, 1999

As you can see, that wall was broken down with this act.
The stage was set for massive levels of abuse. It has taken less than ten years for that act play a major role in propelling the US into financial chaos. Thank you, Bill Clinton. I used to be a fan.

The next step in creating the current meltdown was the monetary policy of George Bush and Alan Greenspan. Afraid of letting the nation go through recession early in his term, and especially after 9/11, Bush wanted the economy stimulated. Go shopping, he told us. And Greenspan obliged by keeping interest rates so low money was literally essentially free for lenders. No risk was too high when every cent paid in return was pure profit.

Part of the mantra was that everyone should be able to buy a home. Greenspan kept rates so low, virtually anybody could. Just months before beginning to raise rates to slow down the housing bubble he started, he was telling lenders to find ever more creative ways to write mortgages. Incredible, no? Bush did his part by having his administration enforce... pretty much nothing.

With little or no regulation and extremely low interest rates, lenders of all stripes gave home loans to almost anyone who had a job. This was an inherently risky business. Top spread risk and to get the loans off their books so they could write more loans (far more money is earned in the short term by loan fees than by interest earnings), financiers got creative and created an alphabet soup of financial investments (CDOs, SIVs, etc.). They took loans, put them all together in one portfolio and sold them. Investors liked the income from payments and lenders got rid of their balances and their risk. But these things were sold and resold. The values never accurately assigned.

As home prices skyrocketed, a huge, huge new financial market was created, but all out of thin air. As more and more loans failed, these instruments became more toxic. And they failed, and are failing in great numbers because the loans were given to people who could not afford them and because the terms of the loans trapped people with sudden rises in payments. For example, many of the loans were interest only with the payments set to reset after a period of a few years. The new payment is often double or more the payment before. But all those buyers thought they'd be able to refinance. But then the bubble burst, resets started knocking people out of their homes and the economy started sliding.

And here we are.

Foxes in The Hen House
Who is Paulson? He is formerly of GoldmanSachs. Yes, that Goldman Sachs.

Forty years ago there were almost no investment banks, securitised debt or derivatives. The huge increase in global liquidity and credit since the early 1980s has been almost exclusively driven by investment banks through the creation of securitised debt and derivatives, which now represent nearly 90 per cent of total liquidity.

At the beginning of the year there were five major US investment banks - Goldman Sachs, with assets of US$1061 billion (or US$1.06 trillion), Morgan Stanley US$1045 billion, Merrill Lynch US$1020 billion, Lehman Brothers US$689 billion and Bear Stearns US$424 billion.

Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers have disappeared and Merrill Lynch is being taken over by Bank of America. These companies created a huge amount of toxic securitised debt and derivatives that have plunged in value.

So we now have the former CEO of Goldman Sachs, of one of the creators of the FrankenDebt destroying the financial system, in charge of fixing the problem. But you don't hear this from Paulson. You don't hear it in the mainstream media. But Paulson IS the fox in the hen house. This is an obvious conflict of interest. He should be nowhere near the plan.

And he wants no oversight and no possibility of involvement of the Judicial Branch in this crisis he helped create? He's already bending the rules to bail outer Sterns, etc. How much more so if given carte blanche?

We already mentioned Bush and Greenspan. How about Obama and McCain? Why do they support this? Well, McCain is easy to figure: his wife is filthy rich and he's been a free-market, no regulation guy forever. Ever heard of the Keating Five Savings and Loan scandal? McCain. What about Obama? What happened to his populist beginnings? Read here.

There is so much more we could talk about, but there isn't time. You need to act, and act now, so I'm sending this to you. PLEASE, contact your reps/senators. You can find contact info here:

Let them know you're mad as hell, and you're not going to take it anymore!

Those who have been right all along say NO! and HELL NO!

Rubini

Peter Schiff
Bailout cure worse than disease
By Peter Schiff

...Though the government and Wall Street assure us that these bold moves will save the housing market, and the economy as a whole, from collapse, the reality is that the solution is far worse than the problem. As painful as the failure of Freddie and Fannie would have been, bailing them out will hurt even more. In other words, it's not the disease that will kill us but the cure.
...By taking all of the risks out of mortgage lending (provided of course that the loans are conforming), the government is telling lenders not to worry about the loans they make because if borrowers do not repay, the government will.

...As a result of this bailout bill, the share of mortgages owned or insured by Freddie and Fannie will likely swell from near 50% today to over 80% within a year or two, turning a $5 trillion problem into a $10 trillion fiasco...

The grim reality is that trillions of dollars were borrowed and spent that will never be repaid.

...CNBC once nicknamed me "Dr Doom", but compared with what I see coming now, they should have then called me "Dr Sunshine". Take a look at a presentation I made back in November 2006... (Click here to watch the video on YouTube. )

Every real estate prediction I made at that conference, which was considered outrageous at the time by those in attendance, has already come true. As confident as I was then about this impending crisis, I am even more confident now that the government has just thrown gasoline onto the fire

(Copyright 2008 Euro Pacific Capital.)
Karl Denninger - Website Forums YouTube Channel

The Automatic Earth
Debt Rattle 9/30/08

The real world drama, the one not made for TV, certainly carries a lot more tragedy. We are living in the days of falling records, which will in time lead to the days of falling people.

As Wall Street fell more than it ever has in history, US home prices kept on plunging at an uncharted pace. But that’s all just a side show compared to what happens in money markets. Lending rates are surging to new highs so fast it’s time to get dizzy. It makes no difference anymore that central banks unleashed another $620 billion into the black hole, credit is utterly frozen.

For comparison, stock markets lost $1.2 trillion yesterday. Do you need a better proof that what goes in the House over $700 billion is posturing, and bad drama posing as reality TV? Money and credit is leaking out of the world economy so fast you'd need a Paulson plan every single day to keep it cranking along.

Every penny available is hoarded by banks trying to save their butts. You will next see central banks cutting interest rates as if the pit is indeed bottomless. That is an attempt at creating another carry trade. And no, that will not have any effect either. They can not make banks lend to each other who have far more debts than whatever portion of that $620 billion, or the next and the next after that, it is that they can get their hands on. They are gone, drowning in a sea of losing bets, and all the lifeboats left are leaking. Bad.

Here’s where the B-movie remake of the great Greeks meets the theatre of the absurd:

”House Republican conservatives are likely to keep pressing for a mandatory insurance program they initially proposed for mortgage-backed securities. They may also try to force the Securities and Exchange Commission to suspend mark-to-market accounting and require bank regulators to assess the real value of the troubled assets...”


If you still need a translation of that: the real value of the troubled assets is zero. And the real market has already marked it there.

PS Allow me to add something to that: The Real Markets have marked the "troubled assets" down to zero. They're just waiting for the assets to come out of their hiding places. And what we see happening now, is that the real markets are losing patience. They will increasingly start forcing the troubled assets out of their dark holes. And while I am not the only voice talking about this, I think it's still poorly understood: this poses a very serious concern that the economic system, as it exists today, will collapse in its entirety. $700 billion is just one tenth of one percent of the estimated $700 trillion in outstanding derivatives. It's like owing $100, and offering a dime as full and final payment.
There are others.... but I don't have time. My favorite, of course,is...

Me!

(Kidding. Everything I know on this subject has come from those linked, and still others not specifically mentioned or linked here,including a lot of excellent info from The Oil Drum, linked to the right.)

Can they save the economy? No. - January 7, 2008

The Crash - January 8, 2008

;)

It's time for Americans to reassert their ownership of this nation. WE are America. Not the conglomerates, not the politicians. WE are America.

Tell them to vote NO!

Go get 'em.