Anthropogenic Climate Change, Peak Oil and the Great Recession are a Perfect Storm of problems which feed back on each other, reinforced further by their causes and/or effects as well as other positive feedbacks such as resource limitations.
The Future will be Non-linear.
Ten reasons why population control can’t stop climate change 1. Population does not cause climate change 2. The world is not ’full’ 3. Social justice and contraception 4. The climate emergency demands immediate, transformative action now 5. Population arguments wrongly downplay the potential to win 6. Population control is an old argument tacked onto a new issue 7. Arguing for tighter migration restrictions in Australia is a dangerous policy 8. Population control has a disturbing history 9. People in the global South are part of the solution, not the problem 10. Who holds political power is the real ‘population’ issue
My response:
Speaking as a "leftie," Mr. Butler makes the same mistakes that most "lefties" do, and one is akin to the primary mistake that economists make: the invisible hand is invisible for a reason; it doesn't exist. What's best for one is supposed to be what is best for all, but this is never true in specific, thus we have the current economic madness visited upon us. The rich bankers of the world decided they had conquered risk and were far more important to the planet than, say, farmers. So they screwed us all for their own profits.
The same problem exists with regard to population. People will not stop having children "just because." They will do it once they are able to, via services and products not available to many, and once they are (relatively) wealthy. The problem here is, poverty is forever. There is only so much pie and there are always those who take more than an equal portion, particularly in a capitalist system (though we see this in every and any system). This will never change. Now, I would love to see a steady-state economy. I just don't think I ever will.
Thus, Mr. Butler's utopian view of population is a good way to get us all killed.
Mr. Butler's worst offense is to simply ignore three other factors: exponents, energy decline and Liebig's Law of the Minimum. These are all intricately woven together. Mr. Butler may want to look at consumption and population in the U.S. as an example of how not to think about population. Despite large gains in efficiency, the US continues to increase its consumption of energy. Curious! If we have become more efficient, and in some measures much, much more efficient, why has energy use continued to increase? The answer is obvious: population continues to increase. And it always will without some form of population control.
In fact, sustainable societies typically do manage population. One I read of, perhaps in Jared Diamond's Collapse, was a tribe that had lived for thousands of years in the same area. They were able to because they practiced infanticide of ill, weak, malformed babies, sent elderly people off to fend for themselves, practiced birth control and managed sexual behavior. I'm not an advocate of infanticide, forced sterilization, etc., but we must do something.
I recommend listening to Dr. Al Bartlett's lecture on this topic.
http://globalpublicmedia.com/node/461
And here are a few of my thoughts. Recommended readings/listenings, really:
Energy decline due to falling extraction of our most intensive source of energy, oil, means that per capita energy is falling. Falling energy = falling society. Everything we do takes energy and as the world aspires to the standard of living in the developed nations (at a minimum of ten barrels of oil a year/person, which is about 17 years of oil if we all live the same), that energy demand increases. It overtakes efficiency gains. You simply can't ignore Diminishing Returns.
Even if we move to all-renewables, eventually we run into Liebig's Law of the Minimum. That is, the weakest link. A system is only as robust as its weakest link, and a supply chain is only as long as its rarest resource/raw material. Even now, issues are cropping up with rare earth metals, 95% of which are apparently controlled by China.
Exponents. Energy. Minimums.
Population matters, Mr. Butler, and it is ignorance (non-pejorative sense) on your part that allows you to falsely reassure yourself and your readers otherwise.
This post is intended to help you understand the basics underlying the problems of eternal growth. It is a fundamental problem with our current situation because our leaders and our populace have convinced themselves that growth can be a permanent condition.
Unbridled, uncontrolled growth, as Diamond, Homer-Dixon, The Club of Rome, and others, have pointed out, cannot and will not go on forever. It never has and never will. To believe it can depends on believing that human beings are completely and utterly divorced from the natural system of this planet, and even the universe.
Cycles happen. In everything. Period. There is not a single highly complex civilization in history that has not collapsed. Not one. Think on that.
I have posted on these issues before, so will leave you with a simple flow of info that should bring this home to you. It is vital you understand this, for if you do not, you may not have sufficient motivation to make changes. Necessary, unavoidable changes. From energy to food to economics to weather and climate, it is all affected by the underlying issue of exponential, constant growth.
Please use time you might have used to read a book, watch a movie, or just sitting doing nothing to go over these materials. It will be time very well spent.
First, the reason for this post. Here is a video (h/t WRH) that makes exponents really easy to understand. You don't need to know any math or science. It's self-evident. It's essentially Al Bartlett's hour-long lecture condensed into five minutes.
Below that is Al Bartlett explaining the problem of exponential growth (also have linked to the right.) If you want to understand the math/consequences of exponential growth, spend time to immerse yourself. Are we dumber than yeast? (Hint: apparently so!)
Next is an interview with Thomas Homer-Dixon (h/t to Dryki @ TOD) explaining the relevance of this issue in terms of growth and collapse of complex systems.
Finally, is an excellent review/overview of Homer-Dixon's book, The Upside of Down. It will pull various elements of The Perfect Storm together for you.
So, first, Did You Know?
Stop for minute and think about what the above might mean for population, for energy consumption, for food production...
Next, now that you see how fast things have been growing, watch Al Bartlett explain why ignorance of exponents is a HUGE problem. (About 1 hour.)
Now listen to Thomas Homer-Dixon explain, via an interview on a C-Realm podcast, why these things are relevant now. He does this in terms of complexity of our current system. If you don't understand complexity and chaos clearly, don't worry. After watching/listening to these three media sources, you will have some idea.
Now, if you have time to read and/or listen to and/or watch only one of these, read this review/overview of Homer-Dixon's book by contributor Stoneleigh at The Oil Drum: Canada dot com:
Note: Stoneleigh and her partner, Ilargi, now have their own quite excellent economics-oriented website, The Automatic Earth (also linked to the right.)
Not to bum you out, but time is short. Action is needed.
