A Perfect Storm Cometh: Of Crashes, Failures and Bailouts

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Of Crashes, Failures and Bailouts - Round VI

This video speaks for itself. Who got bailed out? Not you and not me. We are the proud owners of all the debt created by federal policies, deregulation, and outright fraud.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Elizabeth Warren would be an excellent choice to replace Tim Geithner, Larry Summers or Ben Bernanke. In case you distrust Warren as an insider, you should also watch the following (it will help you understand why Americans are so leveraged in debt, why a two-income household is required, and why we've nothing left for Wall Street and the government to drain from us, and so why they are now pawning off their debt on our children... and their children... and their children...)

2 comments:

CNY Roger9:25 PM, November 22, 2009
CCPO
Completely off topic because I could not find another way to contact you. Think of this as an e-mail.

You recently posted a challenge on Real Climate “If you have ANY scientific paper, or set of scientific papers, that disprove, to any degree at all, the anthropogenic influence on climate, with particular regard to warming since 1850, please post them.–ccpo

I sent the following response to Real Climate:
Here is a link to a list of papers that indicate that GHG gases are not the sole cause of climate change since 1850: http://www.heartland.org/full/25634/Comments_of_Floy_Lilley_JD_on_EPAs_Proposed_Endangerment_Finding.html.

I find it upsetting that my attempt to provide a response on Real Climate was not allowed. Frankly, I did not check these references other than to see if they were published in a journal that I trust and enough of them were so that I thought it would meet your challenge. However, the fact that the response did not get through indicates that one reason that you have not received a response is that responses were screened out.

Although I am skeptical about AGW given the risks I do think we should be acting now. Frankly this type of action by the most vocal proponents of CAGW is detrimental to implementing meaningful change.
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ccpo1:29 AM, November 23, 2009
CNY Roger,

Nobody, and I stress very strongly NOBODY has ever said GHGs are the sole cause of climate change. EVER.

They are the primary cause of the rise above @285 ppm and of the temp rise. Up to 1850 CO2 didn't go above 300 for millions of years. Many millions.

If your comment didn't get through, it's likely because the Heartland Institute is a propaganda machine and nothing more.

Add to that that the article is by a lawyer, all the more reason. Why would any intelligent person base their understanding of climate on the writings of a lawyer, particularly one associated with Heartland?

That she bases her opinion on the absurdity that climate science is LESS robust since 2006 is insane. Literally.

1. A large # of citations of Christy, et al, which is all highly flawed and discussed to death.

2. She cites Keenlyside which in no way supports a non-anthropogenic stance. In fact, the opposite.

3. She supposedly is citing that IPCC IV is out of date, yet the majority of her citations are even older.

4. A large # of citations of Spencer, et al, which is all already shown to be crap.

5. Clouds? And from 1999? For chrissake, man!

Evidence enough she is absolutely full of crap.

I stopped there.
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Where We Stand

Economic Crisis

Peak Oil
* Peak production appears to have occurred in 2005 or 2008. Certainly, production has been on a plateau since 2004-5. The recession and the high prices from last year caused falling demand. This is brought on lower prices. That caused new production projects to be slowed, delayed or stopped. Because starting up projects takes much longer than shutting them down, this will likely lead to oil shortages if the economy and demand rebound, certainly by 2012 or so.

UPDATE Nov. '09: The new IEA World Energy Outlook revised **downward** to 105 million barrels a day it's projections for future oil production. What they are saying is, over the next 20 years, we won't be finding much oil. Whistle blowers, one still employed, one not, say even this is wishful thinking. We agree. We have thought so for two or three years. They also say the decline rate is higher than admitted - and it was already 4.2%!!! This means we are looking at, what? Six percent? Eight? At six percent we lose the equivalent of Saudi Arabia every two years. Of course, we aren't finding that much new, recoverable oil each year and haven't for decades. Where's the extra coming from?

** Peak occurred from 2005 to 2008. It is slightly possible we could exceed past production in the next two years *if* there is economic growth as there is some spare capacity and some new spare capacity came on this year. There appears to be just enough new oil coming online - or there would have been if projects hadn't been shut in due to the economic crash - the next two years to barely stay even. After that, decline will have eaten away two Saudi Arabias and it will be impossible to reach a new high.

* Production surpasses new oil discoveries by a margin of 3 :1 or 4:1. This is unsustainable.

*The global economic downturn may decrease these numbers, which would help slow the fall down the back slope of the decline curve.

* The "Export Land" Model (.pdf) shows increased consumption in oil exporting nations leads to decreasing exports. Exports dropped by 3% in 2006. For oil importing nations, this means oil availability falls 2x to 3x the global decline rate.

* Current prices make some alternative energy projects economically infeasible. While oil is depleting and declining, the low prices and economic crash are impacting our ability to ramp up renewables to replace fossil fuel-based energy.

* OPEC has announced (1/2/08) future production is in peril. Many believe OPEC cannot raise their current production by more than 3 million barrels a day. Ever. Or can do so only at the cost of future production. I.e., they must choose between their own citizens and the rest of the world.

* A nice, but older, overview (.pdf). Its age, 2005, makes the time lines a little longer than seems probable. Still, excellent forecasting.

People & Power - Peaked - 06 Jan 08 - Part 1.
(Part 2 can be found on youtube.)
An excellent overview of Peak Oil right now.

Climate Change
* James Hansen, et al., published some very important papers (article) this year. Conclusions are thus:

1. The world is at @ 392 ppm CO2, but irreversible climate change happens at just 350, which we passed decades ago. This is why time is shorter than it seems.

2. The goal now is to stop warming at only 2 degrees C. This will still mean seas rising a meter or more and climate change globally, but we may be able to stabilize there. It also means reducing carbon emissions by 90% by 2100. That's creating an entirely new energy system in less than a century. We did that already, but that was when there was virtually no infrastructure in place.

3. Action must be taken in a very short time period. Waiting ten years is almost certainly too long. The silver lining that comes with Peak Oil? It may give us no choice but to act sooner rather than later. The solutions for Peak Oil and Climate Change are the same (except for bio-fuels.) This situation is unprecedented in human history.

* The Arctic melted to an extraordinary degree in 2007 and nearly as much in 2008 - despite perfect conditions for 2008. This is THE canary in the coal mine. Back in February, when the first of three IPCC (Those rock-n-rollers of recent Nobel fame.) reports came out and didn't include ice melt in their projections, I was stunned. Various scientists, also. I knew viscerally that change was coming faster than they stated. Much faster. The summer melt validated that view. Hold on to your hats. f you know anything of Chaos, bifurcations, tipping points and non-linear systems, you're probably as scared as I am.

* New findings of methane being released from the Arctic permafrost and sea floor, along with increased atmospheric methane are ominous signs we may be well past key tipping points. There have been massive, abrupt climate changes in the past due to the release of methan clathrates from the sea floor.

The Big Melt - Arctic ice melt accelerates by 20+%.

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