A Perfect Storm Cometh: Korea Vulnerable

Friday, January 4, 2008

Korea Vulnerable

I have spent a significant portion of my adult life in Korea. I am married to a Korean and have a son whose genes are half Korean. I work here. I live here. And the future scares the hell out of me even more so were I back home in the BushCheney-ravaged US. Why? Korea is poor in natural resources, but has a huge population density. Can you say conflict?

Korea's situation is like that of Ireland. One is an island, the other at the end of a peninsula blocked from China by an unfriendly and already-economically devastated brother. Isolated, relatively speaking. Both are extremely reliant upon, nee dependent upon imported energy. When TSHTF, these two nations are among the most vulnerable of the OECD nations.

As stated before, one of the problems with our oil addiction is it is so pervasive. Oil is in the price of everything, either directly manufactured with oil, with things made with oil, or transported by it. Everything. As the price of oil rises, so does everything else. Eventually. Producers try to keep prices down to avoid demand destruction, but how long can they wait? Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

Documentary with parallels to the Korean situation:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sPDNR2YS3s

Recent Korean news:

Soaring Oil Price a Warning Signal for Korea’s Economy
Optimism Alone Can't Solve the Oil Problem
How Will $100 a Barrel Oil Impact Consumers?
Korean Air Hikes Fuel Surcharge by w100,000
Nuclear Power in Korea
Transportation in Korea

On a positive note, the Korean government isn't as stupid or bullheaded as BushCheney. They know there is a problem. They are setting aside money to invest in energy resources abroad and are planning to build additional nuclear reactors. (Is nuclear an option?) I hope they move fast. Will the recession underway in the US and subsequent likely depression prevent this? If so, watch out. We will be living back in the Choson Kingdom. That's Iron Age.

When TSHTF, what are people going to do? What are WE going to do? (More on that later.)

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Where We Stand

Economic Crisis

Peak Oil
* Peak production appears to have occurred in 2005 or 2008. Certainly, production has been on a plateau since 2004-5. The recession and the high prices from last year caused falling demand. This is brought on lower prices. That caused new production projects to be slowed, delayed or stopped. Because starting up projects takes much longer than shutting them down, this will likely lead to oil shortages if the economy and demand rebound, certainly by 2012 or so.

UPDATE Nov. '09: The new IEA World Energy Outlook revised **downward** to 105 million barrels a day it's projections for future oil production. What they are saying is, over the next 20 years, we won't be finding much oil. Whistle blowers, one still employed, one not, say even this is wishful thinking. We agree. We have thought so for two or three years. They also say the decline rate is higher than admitted - and it was already 4.2%!!! This means we are looking at, what? Six percent? Eight? At six percent we lose the equivalent of Saudi Arabia every two years. Of course, we aren't finding that much new, recoverable oil each year and haven't for decades. Where's the extra coming from?

** Peak occurred from 2005 to 2008. It is slightly possible we could exceed past production in the next two years *if* there is economic growth as there is some spare capacity and some new spare capacity came on this year. There appears to be just enough new oil coming online - or there would have been if projects hadn't been shut in due to the economic crash - the next two years to barely stay even. After that, decline will have eaten away two Saudi Arabias and it will be impossible to reach a new high.

* Production surpasses new oil discoveries by a margin of 3 :1 or 4:1. This is unsustainable.

*The global economic downturn may decrease these numbers, which would help slow the fall down the back slope of the decline curve.

* The "Export Land" Model (.pdf) shows increased consumption in oil exporting nations leads to decreasing exports. Exports dropped by 3% in 2006. For oil importing nations, this means oil availability falls 2x to 3x the global decline rate.

* Current prices make some alternative energy projects economically infeasible. While oil is depleting and declining, the low prices and economic crash are impacting our ability to ramp up renewables to replace fossil fuel-based energy.

* OPEC has announced (1/2/08) future production is in peril. Many believe OPEC cannot raise their current production by more than 3 million barrels a day. Ever. Or can do so only at the cost of future production. I.e., they must choose between their own citizens and the rest of the world.

* A nice, but older, overview (.pdf). Its age, 2005, makes the time lines a little longer than seems probable. Still, excellent forecasting.

People & Power - Peaked - 06 Jan 08 - Part 1.
(Part 2 can be found on youtube.)
An excellent overview of Peak Oil right now.

Climate Change
* James Hansen, et al., published some very important papers (article) this year. Conclusions are thus:

1. The world is at @ 392 ppm CO2, but irreversible climate change happens at just 350, which we passed decades ago. This is why time is shorter than it seems.

2. The goal now is to stop warming at only 2 degrees C. This will still mean seas rising a meter or more and climate change globally, but we may be able to stabilize there. It also means reducing carbon emissions by 90% by 2100. That's creating an entirely new energy system in less than a century. We did that already, but that was when there was virtually no infrastructure in place.

3. Action must be taken in a very short time period. Waiting ten years is almost certainly too long. The silver lining that comes with Peak Oil? It may give us no choice but to act sooner rather than later. The solutions for Peak Oil and Climate Change are the same (except for bio-fuels.) This situation is unprecedented in human history.

* The Arctic melted to an extraordinary degree in 2007 and nearly as much in 2008 - despite perfect conditions for 2008. This is THE canary in the coal mine. Back in February, when the first of three IPCC (Those rock-n-rollers of recent Nobel fame.) reports came out and didn't include ice melt in their projections, I was stunned. Various scientists, also. I knew viscerally that change was coming faster than they stated. Much faster. The summer melt validated that view. Hold on to your hats. f you know anything of Chaos, bifurcations, tipping points and non-linear systems, you're probably as scared as I am.

* New findings of methane being released from the Arctic permafrost and sea floor, along with increased atmospheric methane are ominous signs we may be well past key tipping points. There have been massive, abrupt climate changes in the past due to the release of methan clathrates from the sea floor.

The Big Melt - Arctic ice melt accelerates by 20+%.

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Friday, January 4, 2008

Korea Vulnerable

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